Agricultural Policies

Paper

Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets

Simla Tokgoz, Amani Elobeid, Jacinto Fabiosa, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu, Fengxia Dong, Chad E. Hart, and John C. Beghin Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Staff Report 07-SR 101, July (2007)

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farm gate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases.

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